Re: (603 Views)
Posted by:
TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: November 15, 2004 05:09PM
Comment on what? I must have said in 50 different posts that the way you know how fast the track is is by seeing how fast horses run over it compared to how they have run in previous races. This is how we do it on a day to day basis, and it's how we compare horses who have run over different tracks, on different days, under different conditions. It's also how you compare horses from different eras.
Michael, do your own homework, and stop asking me to do it for you. My "comments" are the figures I make for a living, and have had a considerable amount of sucess using, most publicly in buying and managing horses. I know they are right because I see how they work internally. You don't get to see that, and want to come at it a different way, fine-- do some research. I'll be interested in seeing what you come up with. Keep in mind that NYRA (and especially Porcelli) are a lot more evolved than most, and many may not have a coherent strategy, good records, or someone who has been there long enough to know or who is willing to talk. As I mentioned once here, I did have a conversation once with the track super at a MAJOR racetrack (big enought to host the BC) who told me the track gets faster as the day goes on because "the horses are faster later in the day".
But let me ask you this-- we know that NYRA has made significant changes over the last 20 years that have had the effect of significantly slowing the tracks down (detailed in "Are Racehorses Getting Faster", archives). Does it stand to reason that the leader in the industry would be the only one behaving this way? Do you think tracks don't look at what each other are doing? Do other businesses work that way?
Remember-- they are not thinking in terms of speed, they are thinking in terms of safety. Do a search here for Porcelli's interview with Charlie Moran to see how much heat they get from horsemen.
TGJB