Michael D. wrote:

> CtC,
> so if some of the track superintendents across the country come
> out and say that tracks are not that much slower than they used
> to be (which would basically ruin TGJB's entire argument), are
> you just going to come out and say that they are wrong, or they
> are crooks? please, expand on your theory of why you do not
> trust the CD track super? you have made a very important point,
> one that needs further explanation.

Apparently, we have fallen into the "Are racetrack surfaces changing" in regard to answering the question "Are Horses really getting faster".

Firstly, some anecdotal information. I use to handicap Gulfstream when it was a greased lighting strip. It was resurfaced around 1990. The color changed and it became significantly slower. I remembering seeing Rubianos maiden win go in about 1:12 is my recollection. You saw the Florida Derby time from this year. I'll grant you that we didn't see the best horses in the crop that race, but there were some decent horses in that field.

Secondly, heres the Kentucky Derby winners raw times. I read them as getting significantly faster from 1896 to 1973. Do you think horses were getting faster in that period or perhaps the track was getting faster? If you look at the times from 1973-2004 my feeling is they have become slower than the years 1962-1973. Why is that? Are horses suddenly getting slower or is the track changing?:

http://www.derbypost.com/pastwinners.html


Heres a little Churchill factoid about their dirt course composition. Not much clay in it is there? With less clay than than some of the other tracks do you think its generally faster or slower?:

http://www.churchilldowns.com/bet_the_races/understanding/301/TrackConditions/Dirt.html

Lone Star Park was resurfaced not long ago:

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/todaysnewsarchive/9377

and a blurb regarding the changing nature of the Lone Star strip:

http://www.dailyherald.com/sports/arlingtonpark.asp?intID=38290103

“The red dirt composition of the old main track, perceived as hard and fast, is gone. In its place is a brown dirt with a mixture of silt, sand and organic fibers. There is a good consistency to the surface, and it is regularly watered down.
Like Santa Anita, the track should play favorably to horses that are athletic and have an ability to show speed, as opposed to long-galloping horses that take their time finding their best run."

Finally a little blurb about Arlingtons cushion:

Arlington Cushion 5.5 inches:
http://www.advantagesportsbetting.com/horse/arlington-park.html

I know track composition is changing. Why is it necessary to prove it? I know it is, but I'm still gonna beat Ghostzapper and I'll say when.

CtC



Post Edited (11-17-04 03:43)