Re: Speed (579 Views)
Date: November 16, 2004 09:31AM
Chuckles,
>If Jerry says its a negative 6 (ghostzapper), from what I can see here, I tend to believe him.<
It was a -6 based on the methodology Jerry uses. However, there were 2 contributers to that -6 that are suspect.
1. IMHO, the outside paths were a bit faster than the inside paths that day. So if you lost ground, it didn't cause you to run slower. A chunk of ghostzapper's -6 was ground lost. He ran WAY OUT on the track.
2. That pace was too fast for a couple of the other less talented contenders. It caused several of them to be beaten by a little more than expected based on their figures coming in.
Once you give him the -6, you then use that -6 to help determine the next figure. If you are doing things like that for all the horses their figures will keep getting faster.
Jerry will argue that all the figures fit perfectly, but IMO that is because he is "always" building his beliefs about the lack of impact from pace, quality of race, competitive battles, and bias issues into his track variants and thus biasing the figures faster.
If I am correct, it's not really a handicapping issue because TG's figures are better than the others and because the "faster" bias develops so slow it doesn't impact gambling results. It just impacts generational comparisons.
Post Edited (11-16-04 09:55)