Re: Are Racehorses Getting Faster (545 Views)
Posted by:
Chuckles_the_Clown2 (IP Logged)
Date: November 18, 2004 05:09PM
classhandicapper wrote:
> JB,
>
> >Now, my impression is that on that panel Beyer said they used
> claiming pars. I could be wrong-- I'll watch the DVD again when
> I get a chance. But even if the situation is what you
> described, that they use pars for only some tracks, that will
> act as a drag on your figures (to say nothing of creating an
> imbalance).<
I'm probably too far out of the figure loop to thoroughly understand this "break off" from pars tenent. I always felt pars were subject to change and needed to be revised with current year times to be relevant. However, I think some correalation with a "base" is necessary to figure a days sample, especially when something like a single two turn race is involved. I keep "rough pars" in my head and then watch the results to try and ascertain variance from final times. One way to do this is project the final time for each race you watch and modify your "projected time" with each race result to arrive at a rough "variant" for whats going on and consequently an estimation of individual efforts. Honestly, I don't know how a figure can be reliable without some reference to a "par". I trust the figure makers and only do this to spot anomolies, which can occur for a number of reasons.
CtC