Re: Faster Than They Used To Be (573 Views)
Date: November 15, 2004 07:30PM
>1-- Beter's position is based on an ASSUMPTION about horses staying at the same speed, which is what the use of claiming pars is at heart. <
Are we 100% sure about this?
1. "We" know for certain Beyer makes projection based figures for all the major circuits the same as TG, Rag etc.... He does not use par times for major circuits, only minor circuits. So if the horses were getting faster, so would his figures.
2. "I" know for certain he spot checks figures for horses changing circuits by using his/drf computer database of figures.
3. "I" have never seen him adjust a whole series of figures down to bring them back in line with the claiming pars. His figures would also get faster over time unless he occasionally went back and downgraded them to bring them in line with pars.
Like I've said repeatedly, you've made an excellent case that horses are getting faster in general.
However, I think there is no clear evidence about whether or not sprinters are getting faster relative to routers. If you have long term pars for stakes horses in sprints vs. routes I'd lke to see them.
I also think there are aspects of your methodolgy (based on your expressed handicapping beliefs) that in my mind could bias your figures towards getting faster. Maybe you are right, but your figures are getting faster at too fast a rate relative to the improvement of the horses. I think you should consider some of the pace, quality of competition, and bias issues that many handicappers swear by that if correct would be biasing your figures towards getting faster via your exclusion.