JB,

>Now, my impression is that on that panel Beyer said they used claiming pars. I could be wrong-- I'll watch the DVD again when I get a chance. But even if the situation is what you described, that they use pars for only some tracks, that will act as a drag on your figures (to say nothing of creating an imbalance).<

1. He and/or his partners are creating projection figures for the major circuits. I can’t give you a complete list. I might be able get that information from a friend at the DRF who is in a position to know. Whether casual glances at class pars are used in making marginal decisions about track speed I do not know, but if they are, it would have a small impact.

2. The very small tracks where he is using par times will only act as a drag if you are correct in your assumption that the horses are getting faster.

3. If we assume you are right (by any rate) those par time figures “would” act as a small drag. However, Beyer crosschecks figures by computer when horses change circuits. If any circuit is found to be consistently out of line, they make adjustments – I would assume in favor of the track with the higher quality figures but I do not know. I think this issue is a better case for saying that his small track figures are almost worthless than it is for saying all his figures are anchored by pars. I think it's unlikely enough small track horses ship into the major circuits to screw up the projection quality figures on the major circuits.

4. Maybe his figures “are” getting a little faster, just not at the same rate. When they first started publishing the Beyer figures I did a multi-year study of his par times in NY. If I ever have a chance, I’ll do it again but just at the graded stakes level to see if I notice anything. It’s very time consuming for me.

5. I generally crosscheck the Beyer figures with another set of Beyer scale figures for NY made independently by a very competent guy using the projection method. They are not equal on a day to day/race to race basis, but there has been no noticeable divergence. The figures haven't improved sharply. The maker provides me with pars from time to time.

I hope this helps. (much of this information about process comes from my friend at the DRF. He is very sharp and knows.)



Post Edited (11-17-04 19:23)