classhandicapper wrote:


>
> It was a -6 based on the methodology Jerry uses. However, there
> were 2 contributers to that -6 that are suspect.
>
> 1. IMHO, the outside paths were a bit faster than the inside
> paths that day. So if you lost ground, it didn't cause you to
> run slower. A chunk of ghostzapper's -6 was ground lost. He ran
> WAY OUT on the track.
>
> 2. That pace was too fast for a couple of the other less
> talented contenders. It caused several of them to be beaten by
> a little more than expected based on their figures coming in.
>
> Once you give him the -6, you then use that -6 to help
> determine the next figure. If you are doing things like that
> for all the horses their figures will keep getting faster.
>
> Jerry will argue that all the figures fit perfectly, but IMO
> that is because he is "always" building his beliefs about the
> lack of impact from pace, quality of race, competitive battles,
> and bias issues into his track variants and thus biasing the
> figures faster.
>
> If I am correct, it's not really a handicapping issue because
> TG's figures are better than the others and because the
> "faster" bias develops so slow it doesn't impact gambling
> results. It just impacts generational comparisons.
>

Firstly, generational comparison is a nice thought. Practically, (even for a figure man), its not feasible for all the reasons we are pouring over. Great horses are great horses in their era. Thats about as far as you can take it. How many big races did they win against their contemporaries. I'd remind everyone that despite his Triple Crown and track records, Secretariat was very mortal on some days. He was impressive in the Belmont and otherwise good when it counted and thats why we remember him. So, maybe I can't say that Ghostzapper is NOT the new Doc. But, I'm still a fan and I said it.

Regarding the figure making. Lost ground is lost ground. It results in running more distance. If the Belmont rail was dead, (all the jocks in the colony know it goes bad there at times), T-Graph will note it in their sheets. I agree however that unless the dead rail is caught it can impact the figures. Especially when the "projection method" is used. There needs to be a certain amount of correalation with the other days races, but I believe TGJB looks carefully at that, especially on a day when he assigns a negative six.

I also agree that pace or lack thereof and track bias can result in aberration figures. I agree that once you assign an "apple" and that apple is "bad" it can impact subsequent performance figure apples, spoiling some along the way. I favored Birdstone to run big in the Belmont in part for these reasons. (Still didn't cash)

Time will tell. If Ghostzapper stays sound and really is a negative six horse he's gonna demolish the horses he faces next year. If he's not hes gonna get beat and that defeat will probably come at 10 marks. I'm planning two speeches. The one I hope to give is "I told you so, I'm the greatest ever", but I've been wrong enough with T-Graph to know I have to have my concession speech ready. I hope the others here doubting the negative sixes will be as prepared to concede too.

One last item. How do you quantify the cheating?



Post Edited (11-16-04 11:17)