Re: Faster Than They Used To Be (624 Views)
Posted by:
jimbo66 (IP Logged)
Date: November 15, 2004 09:00PM
Class Handicapper, you make a good case. Granted, since JB is making figures for 10 tracks a day, he has insight that others of us don't have. But I think it is fair to say that one of two key "flaws" in his methodogoly would have the potential to skew the figures.
Just another point, which admittedly is not scientific in nature. In 2004, Jerry gave out the fastest figure to any 3 year old EVER to Smarty Jones and also the fastest figure EVER to any horse in Ghostzapper. Even if we accept the fact that there have been incremental changes in racing surfaces over the past 30 years, do we really think that there is enough change from 1 year to the next to overcome the statistical anomaly that we would have the fastest 3 year old every and the fastest horse ever, in the same year. Does anybody out there really believe that Smarty Jones was the fastest three year old of all time? This has turned out to be an awful group of 3 year olds as none has established themselves against older horses and outside of smarty, the group is pretty non-descript.
Without doing my own research (which admittedly is the lazy way out), it is easier for me to believe CH's thesis that there are some fundamental flaws in T-Graph logic that is leading to horses getting faster too quikly on Jerry's figures, than it is to believe that we have the fastest 3 year old of all time and the fastest horse of all time in 2004.