Re: Questions about Figures (614 Views)
Posted by:
Chuckles_the_Clown2 (IP Logged)
Date: April 23, 2005 02:58PM
classhandicapper wrote:
> Jimbo,
>
> I hinted several times right after the Blue Grass that it
> wasn't nearly as bad as some people thought. The 6F call of the
> race was actually quite fast relative to the final time of the
> race and the other two routes that day.
The problem was there were lightly raced horses in the other races. I called the pace Hot. It was legitmate. They came home slow, but so did Peace Rules two years ago. This race is gonna be grist for debate post Derby and the problem is gonna be explaining away the changing results on bounce and distance. Bandini is probably gonna show nicely in the Derby. He's improving and he's Pletcher trained. High Limit is gonna be prominent for as long as the mojo and the track takes him. The horses behind Bandini all ran poorly even giving him a Neg 3.3 with the exception of High Limit and Closing Argument. Why should those two have run well in the circumstances? Because they are maturing 3 yr olds?
I think theres other ways to view the Bluegrass. From my perspective its very difficult to give Bandini a negative 3.3 unless you're locking in on the previous efforts. On a variant and raw time analysis a fast Bluegrass time does not hold up well in my opinion. If you applied the final times in this years Bluegrass to last years bluegrass you'd have to give TCE and Lion Heart about a negative 4.3 and I just can't accept that projection.
At any rate, my prime play will be to beat BR but i will box Jerry's high number earners so I don't look a complete fool when they come in.
lol
CtC
Post Edited (04-23-05 15:14)