Re: Changing Track Speeds: A Derby Contender Case Study Perhaps (804 Views)
Posted by:
Tabitha (IP Logged)
Date: February 11, 2006 09:26AM
Silver Charm Wrote:
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> Could someone please explain what if anything
> happened at Santa Anita on Feb 4th. Bob and John
> in the 4th race ran an identical time as High
> Limit did in the Strub. However according to
> Beyer, High Limit received a Best Year-to-Date
> North American route figure of 109 while Bob and
> John got the same thing Judge Smells in Caddy
> Shack gave Spalding, "You'll get nothing and like
> it". Obviously Beyer thinks the Track changed
> speed somewhere mid-day.
>
> Bob and John may or may not be a major Derby
> contender, a figure identical to High Limits at
> one mile and one eighth this early would stamp him
> as the horse to beat. A few years ago some had
> Smarty Jones fast, some slow.
>
> Has history repeated itself again.........
And Beyer apparently doesnt even factor Wide. You have to remember Beyer thought Bellamy Road was the second coming and has NEVER selected a Derby winner.
That track was hard to get a handle upon and appears to have fluctuated. For the two races in question however, its an issue of "Which way did it fluctuate".
Anyone relying upon Projection for that card (aka Give some of the horses what they usually run and calculate the others off those usuals) is making a monumental mistake and is going to lose credibility with knowledgeable handicappers upon later results.
My inclination? Up factor Beyers reading of "Bob and Johns" effort. Down factor his view of High Limit's effort. There appeared to be more pace in High Limit's race, but "Bob and John" came home like a good thing. Head to head at the Derby distance, it's "Bob and John" and thats a no brainer.
More evidence that if you Live upon Mass Produced figures be prepared to Die upon them.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/11/2006 09:27AM by Tabitha.