miff Wrote:
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> Jerry,
>
> There was a post by a new name TGPOSTER that
> compared the splits of the two races and made some
> suppositions. I read it.It's gone.

I read it too and tend to agree with with TGPoster. His position was that in all likelihood "Bob and John" ran faster than scored here and High Limit ran slower than scored here. My best approximation using site numbers is about a 1-2 for High limit and about a 2-3 for Bob and John. If you deduct 3 points from ALL in the Sham the race is still viable. If you Add 2 points to all in the Strub the same is true. In the Sham there were young, improving age horses. In the Strub there were comeback and questionable horses.

The individual that deleted TGPosters response is probably the same individual that removed CTC's "Ask the Experts" access.

Silver Charm, the older Derby patterns are probably not as applicable for a number of reasons. One of which being the current vogue of "Projection" and strict adoption of "Changing Track Speed Theory". Assignment of Pairs is more likely with that methodology, as is assignment of some really big numbers, when the Pairs don't actually occur.

TGJB, its entirely possible that I could be persuaded by perusal of the Sham/Strub card MSW race past performances with the figures earned. For that matter it wouldn't hurt to see the entire card with post race figures earned. By offering only the subject races with the figures earned all that is suggested is Projection dictated that the assigned numbers be assigned. We know that. My take on it at this point is signficantly different than a 5 for "Bob and John" and a Negative 1 for High Limit. I believe the track was quirky early, but speeding up by the 7th to be as about as fast as the 3rd race.

You're position is fast early, really slow by the 4th, despite watering, and then no water beginning with the 6th and then a quickening trend due in part to drying, but never getting so quick as the 3rd when watering was suggested to be keeping the strip glib. Understanding nature plays an enormous role, its very hard to follow the logical consistency of fast, very Slow, Quickening, but still slower than the early races when watering ostensibly made the track faster. In the face of that, the 9th race final time looms.

There may be a difference, at this point, there is no objective basis to believe it is a 6 point difference.