Re: Changing Track Speeds: A Derby Contender Case Study Perhaps (700 Views)
Posted by:
TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: February 13, 2006 01:34PM
Miff-- I don't want to get caught up in an endless loop of this. I always end up in the same place-- either having to spend a lot of time going over the same stuff over and over, or letting wrong stuff go unresponed to, or cutting someone off. In your case the situation is complicated by your being a good long time customer, and I know your posts are made in good faith (although some of the editorial comments are pretty annoying). But I won't bar you.
Not that I care what the other figure guys do with the day (they could have the dogmatic approach Ragozin does, for example, and simply decide tracks don't change speed), but your pals evidently decided the track DID change. So once you understand that, the only question is how much. What some of you guys don't grasp is that I'm not just making figures for Bob and John and Greeley's Galaxy, I'm making figures for-- AND LOOKING AT DATA FOR-- lots of horses. DATA THAT YOU ARE NOT LOOKING AT. Figures for all the horses, adjusted for beaten lengths, ground, weight, and in some cases wind (not a factor on this day)
The day basically went like this-- it got much slower for the fourth (the race after Bob and John), and gradually got faster thereafter. Specifically, the fourth was at minus 7, the rest of the dirt went minus 4 1/2, minus 4 (Strub), minus 2. This was a day where the one and two turn races lined up.
I've already posted the Sham and Strub on this string. In the case of the Sham, note HOW MANY horses would run big new tops if you make the race faster (3 out of the 5). Sure, they all could (even if it's 40% for each one, which by itself would make it unlikely for all of them to do it)-- but more importantly, the alternative had them all running almost exactly their previous top. If you make the race faster, you are saying that all 3 picked exactly the same day to jump the same amount-- some coincidence. It is FAR more likely that they all ran back to their previous tops-- that's the kind of situation that all figure makers want to see more than any other.
But now I'm going to go further. Attached you will find the maiden claimers from the fourth race, right after the track changed speed, when the track was at its slowest. Remember, I took off 7-- see what happens if you add 7 (or even less) to the race.
Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 02/13/2006 03:05PM by TGJB.
Attachments:
sa020406.pdf (243.6KB)