People are really getting sensitive over this issue. Posts being deleted, must be a case of cabin fever. Anyway here goes

For those following along please see the first post from TGJB in this string which contains PDF files of both the Strub and Sham.

Bob and John for most Baffert Trainees has been a slowly developing individual who has received, for this particular conditioner, light training. However Baffert has followed a similar pattern with his two previous Derby winning trainees, who were products of his program: Silver Charm and Real Quiet.

http://www.thorograph.com/archive/files/derby1997.pdf
http://www.thorograph.com/archive/files/derby1998.pdf

This may explain why he has, as TG has accurately measured, paired in his last four efforts. Going into the Sham, Bob and John according to the Thoro-Pattern analysis was 40 % likely to pair, which is precisely what he did. But we are still in February and as the sheets of the aforementioned champions explains things change once we get to March. Bob and Johns work pattern has been a blend of the four, five and six furlong variety, (see DRF workout archive). The last two were not bullets. Which means the trainer was backing off on the pressure attempting to get his runner to reach peak form as the stretch run to Kentucky begins in the first of March. As the intensity and distance of the works starts to pickup expect to see Bob and John make that next inevitable forward. But don’t expect to see it any sooner than that and absolutely don’t think you saw it when you really didn’t.

High Limit unlike Bob and John was a fast horse from the get go. And despite the efforts of the most patient of conditioners the horse suffered thru a early productive three year old campaign that was beset by physical problems over the remainder of the season. After a six month break from dirt racing High Limit returned with a game front running effort in the San Pascual and put it all together in the Strub doing something he previously had not done. Rate kindly and finish strongly. The result was a breakthrough Top. If High Limit is over his physical issues and can hold his current form, the trainer profile says he has a 42% chance of paring his Top. A pair of that effort makes him highly competitive on Big Cap Day, with holding his from being the primary concern instead of distance limitations.




Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 02/12/2006 04:26PM by Silver Charm.