Miff-- I'm going to say this one more time and that's it, because I've covered it dozens of times, and you are completely missing it.

The relationships between horses in a race are completely fixed by beaten lengths, weight, and ground. I CAN'T just "project" a figure for a horse, and do the same thing for another in that race-- if Bob and John gets a 5, the second horse has to get an 8, etc. You could do what you are suggesting for exactly one horse a race.

What this means is, the very fact that you see so many pairs means the figures are falling into place, not being forced-- having horses run back to previous figures, or in their own tight ranges, is how you HOPE it comes out when you make figures. The whole concept of making figures by whatever specific method (to say nothing of betting with them) is based on the idea that past figures are a guide to future efforts. Each time it comes out that way, with lots of horses running back to previous figures, it is not only evidence that this figure is correct, but that previous figures for several horses, coming out of different races, are as well, which in turn means evidence the figures for the OTHER horses in THOSE races are too.

Jim-- Young, very lightly raced horses are at least 50% to pair their top or run a new one in any start, and can't be more than 25% (probably way less) to run 7 points off it. You really want an entire field to run 7 points off their tops? For four of them to do it, even using 25%, would be 25x25x25x25, which works out to less than 1%. And that's just with four. And even the way I did it, several ran way off their tops-- and only two ran new tops, which is far less than usual for a field with this many making only their second or third start.



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 02/13/2006 02:46PM by TGJB.