Re: ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (737 Views)
Date: October 04, 2003 08:54AM
I agree that Toccet had never run a good enough race to win going in the PA Derby. I though he was an underlay there also. However, based on his early year form, he was certainly eligible to improve enough 2nd off a layoff to be a strong contender there. IMO there is credible vidence he ran worse despite YOUR figure.
I believe he is STILL eligible to improve. I wouldn't take him tomorrow against graded older horses, but again, the improvement that one could have expected in PA Derby actually may have happened. It may have simply been masked by the sloppy sealed track and will be revealed tomorrow instead. We will see. If he does not improve a lot then he will get beaten badly again.
With all due respect, your figure for the West Virginia Derby is wrong. Dynever and Soto ran very well that day. I tried to say that politely in the analysis of the performance of Soto vs Ten Most Wanted. (the gap was not as huge as you thought - from both perspectives) Dynever was horrible in the PA Derby relative to his performance in the West Virginia Derby.
I think that was further clarified last night. Without even seeing the speed figure for the Med race, I can can tell you for certain he ran a terrific race there. He finished quite well despite racing from behind a slow pace against "decent" older horses.