Well, I say "believe" because I am not arrogant enough to assume that every piece of information I look at is 100% accurate - including those I calculate myself. In fact, it is quite clear to me that equally competent and quite good figure makers often disagree on individual races. I see it every day.

If you insist on actual data, just look at the Beyer figures for the W.V. Derby - in and out. It is quite clear at this point that the performances by Soto and Dynever that day were quite good - better than you gave them credit for.

In fact, that 114 Beyer was quite consistent with the figures of the horses that finished behind the Dynever and Soto based on what they had run coming into the race.

I saw the rain too. No doubt that threw a monkey wrench into the figure making process for the WV Derby for EVERYONE - INCLUDING YOU.

Now I understand that paths etc.. are a big part of your figures, but they do not account for subsequent results.

We just need to examine how they came out of it. Soto figured 10 lengths slower than Ten Most Wanted based on your figures, but figured real close on Beyers - with Ten Most Wanted having earned his figures against tougher competition. They finshed close in what in my view was a very logical outcome.

Dynever got buried by 12 lengths against a Grade 3 field in the mud. Some of the horses that finished ahead of him would be 100-1 against Ten Most Wanted. You insist that it's his lifetime top and the mud had nothing to do with it.

Then he comes back and runs a huge race against decent older horses from well behind a slow pace last night.

I am saying maybe, just maybe, you underestimated the WV Derby despite your theories on rain etc...

Perhaps the WV Derby WAS HUGE and the mud was a factor in the dismal performance by Dynever in PA Derby.

It makes a hell of lot more sense that Dynever, Soto, and Ten Most Wanted are reasonably close based on virtually every result since then. Those results were also consistent with what other figure makers thought of the WV Derby.

Please don't take it personal. I could show you dozens of figures that IMO Beyer and others got wrong and you got right.

There is an old saying. To a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail. I think you are holding a hammer on this one.