I think "your figures" modestly underestimated the performance of Dynever and Soto in the WV Derby.

I think "your figures" modestly overestimated the performance of Ten Most Wanted in the Travers.

I think "your figures" overestimated the performance of Grand Hombre in PA Derby. I think the reality is that some of the horses that finished behind him did not fire on the wet track.

I think Dynever was one of them. He ran poorly in the PA Derby relative to the WV Derby.

My opinions on these specific races are more closely alligned with the Beyer figures in these particular circumstances, but I think the Beyer figures are also often "suspect" in terms of actually capturing a horse's performance.

The Beyer Figures also do not take into account the impact that pace can have on the outcome and speed figures of individual participants. Personally, both in his case and yours, I have no problem with that because there is no scientific formula for determining exactly what the impact was in any individual case. It is very close to impossible to make really accurate pace figures to begin with.

HOWEVER, it is beyond silly to deny that the pace impacts both the results and times of individual horses. Just because it can't be measured with perfection as you attempt to do with your speed figures, does not mean you should ignore when it is fairly clear.

Last night's MED CUP was a slow pace. Anyone with a reasonable amount of racetrack experience that watched that race could see they were crawling early. Dynever clearly ran well to overcome that when he ran hard and wide into the quickening pace later. Volponi did not. There is close to a zero percent probability that he race as well in the PA Derby as he did both last night and in the WV Derby.

As far as I am concerned it is beyond silly to think that some of the horses that buried Dynever in PA would have won last night - perhaps by daylight.

Also, many individuals PREFER that the paths not be included in the speed figures because they believe that racetracks are not uniform. That is, a horse that is racing 3-4 wide might have an advantage over a horse running on the rail on some days. On other days, racing 3-4 might be a death sentence that goes well beyond the lost ground.

This is another thing that cannot be measured scientifically. It is highly subjective. However, it is beyond silly to deny that biases of various types exist on occasion.

I believe you are looking for a magical formula. I can't debate with you because I do not believe what you require of me exists in the real world...though it would be nice.

What I am saying is that you (everyone really) should look at all the evidence and try to make sense of the results in light of ALL the information available and not just what CAN BE MEASURED REALLY WELL.

It also makes sense to review prior opinions when new information comes in (basically when the horses run again) because we all make mistakes.

These subjective ideas are what lead me to the conclusions above. I did not come to them after the races. I came to them before.

For the record, I have not cashed a single bet on any of them. Just discussing the horses in hopes of cashing in the future.

The only bet I've made in the last few weeks was During. My opinion and reason for that bet was clear. He stalked a blazing pace in a very high quality and deep field that I thought was better than EVERYONE's speed figure indicated.

Good Luck.

Really, just trying to discuss horses and performances etc... I think your work is awesome. Not being critical.