Re: ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (769 Views)
Date: October 04, 2003 09:39AM
Rather than debate the various sets of figures and which races are underrated and which are overrated, I will sum up my view this way.
1. Dynever and Grand Hombre are much closer in ability than believed here. Dynever may actually be the better horse.
2. If I believe that about Dynever, then I believe that about Soto too.
3. Dynever ran poorly in the PA Derby relative to the W. V. Derby.
4. Toccet has been below all all of them, but is/was eligible to improve enough to be on their level based on his 2yo form and first race back. He obviously did not do that in the PA Derby, but IMHO, it is not 100% certain whether that was due to the sloppy track or simply NOT making any progress. We will learn more tomorrow where he will have to improve a lot to contend.
5. Grand Hombre may now actually be overrated and vulnerable today at a short price. Though, IMO, that field is not too good - so he may win anyway. If I were going to bet, I'd be looking to beat him.