beyerguy (735 Views)
Date: October 08, 2003 07:53PM
>He concludes if you must adjust for weight (which I think is silly not to do)<
I think there are at least four theories on adjusting for weight.
1. It makes sense and is consistent with some studies of horses' subsequent speed figures when there are shifts in weight load.
2. The impact of weight is individual so it is best to NOT put it in a formula. Simply look at the record of the individual horse and work subjectively.
3. There is little or no impact from weight shifts other than real extremes.
4. There is an impact, but betters wildly overrate it so from a value perspective you are usually better off going against the grain by betting on the horse picking up weight.
I lean to #1, #4, and to a lesser extent #2.