I love this "believe" stuff. When you are ready to back it up-- when you are ready to reveal the data behind the W. Va. figure being wrong, when you are factoring in ground loss, weight, wind etc. (and rain right before the race in that case), when you can give detailed reasoning that doesn't have to do with horses winning or finishing well in OTHER races (with all the assumptions that entails) but is about the nuts and bolts of figure making, let me know. If it's not that it is about only belief and faith, like class handicapping, choosing a religion, or thinking a hot early pace causes closers to actually run faster (you eloquently stated your BELIEF, and offered no evidence to back it up-- I could just as easily contrive a scenario where it caused the other closers in the Travers to get discouraged and not fire).



TGJB