Re: ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (676 Views)
Date: October 06, 2003 10:16AM
>Good luck, you'll really need it.<
I have a significant edge over the game playing stakes races exclusively.
The way I achieve that edge is in the realization that people look at their own figures, trips, etc... (whatever method they use) and assume they are always right.
What I have found is that on some occasions figures and information is solid as a rock and on others it is "highly suspect". By suspect I mean some days and/or races are tougher to make accurate figures for because of pace, weather, distance, wind etc.. We all know that.
"HOWEVER" handicappers view all the information the same all the time as if it is all equally accurate.
I observe the suspect figures and races and study them to death in an effort to determine beforehand what the reality is.
You simply cannot do that for the many many dozens of races around the country. But you can do to for specific types - like stakes or maidens in NY etc...
Then I observer the results closely and adjust my opinions when I am wrong fro future refernce and bets.
In this particular case, there is not doubt in my mind that the PA Derby was not as fast as thought around here and that Dynever ran poorly that night because of the slop.
Every single horse out of the PA Derby has disappointed relative that supposed super fast race EXCEPT DYNEVER.