Re: ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (759 Views)
Date: October 06, 2003 09:44AM
On several occasions I suggested to you that perhaps your figures misrepresented the actual performance of the horses.
One was the Travers, where a fast pace hurt both duelers that clearly had much tougher trips than in their prior races. In looking at your figures, I suspected that you made the Travers figures too fast and gave Ten Most Wanted too much credit for that performance - probably because you didn't take into account the impact of the pace on Peace Rules and the ease of trip for Ten Most Wanted. (but I am not a mind reader)
Other sources of speed figures like Beyer, Logic Dictates, etc. also seemed to suggest that was the case. So it wasn't just me.
At the same time, I also suggested that it was extremely difficult (for everyone) to make the WV Derby figure because it rained just prior and during the race. However, other figure makers were making that race faster than you did and I did not think either interpretation was conclusive. This is not an exact science.
Finally, I said the PA Derby was also suspect for similar reasons and that Dynever did not like the slop that night. HE DID NOT RUN A LIFETIME TOP IN AN EXTREMELY FAST RACE.
In the past, you trashed me for coming forward after the race with my interpretations of prior results and figures.
So this time beforehand I tell you Dynever will run big at the Meadowlands because you are underrating him and all the other horses coming out of the PA Derby will not run at well as you think.
Dynever then runs a huge race closing off the slow pace in a fast race at the Meadowlands against older. Other than him, the other supposedly fast horses out of the PA Derby all finish up the track beaten badly or lose at even money.
If you want to ignore my observations, go right ahead. You are welcome to make things up about those results in order to satisfy your own arrogance about your figure making.
I know everyone bounced. Everyone moved forward blah blah blah.
The reality is that making figures is TOUGH and we all make mistakes. I happen to be looking at multiple sources of info and have made figures myself for many years. I also happen to be focusing 100% of my energy on stakes. So when there are huge discrepencies
I take notice (and I do look at paths etc..) and watch the subsequent results.
That's how I find my own errors.
What I never do is ignore tons of evidence that I am wrong about a figure just to satisfy my own ego.
If everyone coming out of the PA Derby ran well, I would be the first one here to tell you I was wrong.