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 Race of the Week:  2023 Breeders' Cup Days Final Figures Santa Anita 3-4 November 2023  • 1 Specials Available
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Re: ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (759 Views)
Posted by: (IP Logged)
Date: October 06, 2003 09:44AM

On several occasions I suggested to you that perhaps your figures misrepresented the actual performance of the horses.

One was the Travers, where a fast pace hurt both duelers that clearly had much tougher trips than in their prior races. In looking at your figures, I suspected that you made the Travers figures too fast and gave Ten Most Wanted too much credit for that performance - probably because you didn't take into account the impact of the pace on Peace Rules and the ease of trip for Ten Most Wanted. (but I am not a mind reader)

Other sources of speed figures like Beyer, Logic Dictates, etc. also seemed to suggest that was the case. So it wasn't just me.

At the same time, I also suggested that it was extremely difficult (for everyone) to make the WV Derby figure because it rained just prior and during the race. However, other figure makers were making that race faster than you did and I did not think either interpretation was conclusive. This is not an exact science.

Finally, I said the PA Derby was also suspect for similar reasons and that Dynever did not like the slop that night. HE DID NOT RUN A LIFETIME TOP IN AN EXTREMELY FAST RACE.

In the past, you trashed me for coming forward after the race with my interpretations of prior results and figures.

So this time beforehand I tell you Dynever will run big at the Meadowlands because you are underrating him and all the other horses coming out of the PA Derby will not run at well as you think.

Dynever then runs a huge race closing off the slow pace in a fast race at the Meadowlands against older. Other than him, the other supposedly fast horses out of the PA Derby all finish up the track beaten badly or lose at even money.

If you want to ignore my observations, go right ahead. You are welcome to make things up about those results in order to satisfy your own arrogance about your figure making.

I know everyone bounced. Everyone moved forward blah blah blah.

The reality is that making figures is TOUGH and we all make mistakes. I happen to be looking at multiple sources of info and have made figures myself for many years. I also happen to be focusing 100% of my energy on stakes. So when there are huge discrepencies
I take notice (and I do look at paths etc..) and watch the subsequent results.

That's how I find my own errors.

What I never do is ignore tons of evidence that I am wrong about a figure just to satisfy my own ego.

If everyone coming out of the PA Derby ran well, I would be the first one here to tell you I was wrong.



Subject Written By Posted
ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (996 Views) jbelfior 10/03/2003 03:42PM
Re: ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (702 Views) 10/03/2003 05:42PM
Re: ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (671 Views) TGJB 10/03/2003 05:57PM
Re: ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (737 Views) 10/04/2003 08:54AM
Re: ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (754 Views) bdhsheets 10/03/2003 10:45PM
Re: ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (713 Views) 10/04/2003 09:01AM
Re: ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (770 Views) 10/04/2003 09:39AM
Re: ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (697 Views) TGJB 10/04/2003 12:38PM
Re: ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (736 Views) 10/04/2003 01:27PM
Re: ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (657 Views) TGJB 10/04/2003 02:14PM
Re: ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (661 Views) TGJB 10/04/2003 02:48PM
Re: ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (725 Views) 10/04/2003 06:35PM
Re: ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (719 Views) TGJB 10/04/2003 07:15PM
Re: ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (589 Views) 10/05/2003 09:41AM
Re: ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (741 Views) TGJB 10/05/2003 12:44PM
Re: ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (873 Views) 10/06/2003 10:58AM
Re: ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (691 Views) 10/06/2003 11:04AM
Re: ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (757 Views) TGJB 10/06/2003 12:27PM
Re: ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (675 Views) 10/06/2003 01:26PM
Re: ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (670 Views) TGJB 10/06/2003 01:41PM
Re: ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (708 Views) 10/06/2003 02:33PM
Re: ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (691 Views) 10/06/2003 02:49PM
Re: ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (697 Views) TGJB 10/06/2003 02:57PM
Re: ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (703 Views) 10/06/2003 03:24PM
Re: ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (621 Views) 10/06/2003 03:34PM
Re: ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (691 Views) Frost King 10/06/2003 06:37PM
Re: ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (693 Views) beyerguy 10/08/2003 05:38PM
Re: ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (729 Views) TGJB 10/08/2003 07:05PM
beyerguy (735 Views) 10/08/2003 07:53PM
Re: beyerguy (729 Views) P.Eckhart 10/08/2003 10:03PM
Re: ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (744 Views) TGJB 10/05/2003 04:28PM
Re: ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (670 Views) bdhsheets 10/05/2003 10:41PM
Re: ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (759 Views) 10/06/2003 09:44AM
Re: ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (676 Views) 10/06/2003 10:16AM
Re: ROTW---INDIANA DERBY (659 Views) 10/06/2003 10:29AM


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