Re: Belmont possibles (704 Views)
Posted by:
ringato3 (IP Logged)
Date: May 18, 2015 10:52AM
Miff,
I do believe there are a number of people who are "aiming at American Pharaho being knocked out" and therefore gonna just wager against him.
I guess this is where I draw a significant difference between this Belmont and the one with Big Brown. Big Brown couldn't lose that Belmont unless he X'ed and didn't run. IMO a bet against him was just a bet hoping he would fall apart and be off the board because of the grind of the campaign, foot problems, etc.etc. Personally, I can't make those kind of bets. (not saying there is anything wrong with them, sounds like TGJB did, boxing the whole field except him and the winner). Bu i can't.
But in this Belmont, AP can run a good race and lose. (again my opinion). I haven't read any credible attack anywhere that says the TG negative 2 or the Beyer 110 figure for Materiality in the florida Derby wasn't a real number or is questionable. AP hasn't run a Beyer like that yet and his big TG fig Derby was a bit ground loss loaded off a comfortable stalking trip off of two speeds. I get your view that Materiality's DEerby was "common". And I agree it was. But I am giving a mulligan off the bad start and off the 5 weeks rest into the belmont, if he trains well, he is a serious contender. Frosted, who ran his big figure in the Wood, is again, almost as fast as AP. I am more skeptical of Frosted, particularly because I am less comfortable with the Wood figure (not saying anybody got it wrong, but the second place horse was a bit of a slug, whereas in the florida Derby Materiality was putting away a fast horse in Upstart, who was on the better part of the track that day - despite Rick Violette's whining about the trip).
Now, you want to add in the conspiracy factor and that Pletcher will have 3 horses, two of which are capable of pushing a pace and we get the possibility of a Smarty like Belmont.....
I am not a conspiracy theory guy, but it would not poor tactics by Pletcher to send one and have other sit right off. (talking Materiality and Carpe Diem)
Rob