ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Paul,
>
> I am not defending chuckles' point. let him do
> that.
>
> But you, of all people, shouldn't be criticizing
> backers of either Upstart of Materiality. I say
> "you of all people", because I have come on the
> board many times over the past couple years
> (mostly as a lurker) and saw you post about
> picking some horse that frankly I thought had no
> shot, because you like to beat favorites. (and
> some of your picks have won while you looked for
> "value".
>
> Upstart, at 19-1 or whatever he was in the Derby,
> and Materiality, at 14-1, were bets I would take
> every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Yep,
> they lost. I don't have to be right every time
> when I am looking at horses like that. You have
> to be right almost every time when you want to bet
> horses that are odds on.
>
> Upstart being "sick". I don't know. I thought
> TGJB was lobbying them to run in the Preakness?
> He had a nice sheet, great 2 year old foundation
> and fast numbers to run to, as well as spacing.
> He was horrible on Derby day. It happens.
>
> Materiality was faster than AP heading into the
> Derby. On ALL NUMBERS. Not just one or two
> figure makers. I would have agreed that if he was
> a short price, with Pletcher's record and the lack
> of 2 year old foundation, he would be a bet
> against, but at 15-1, those things were MORE THAN
> FACTORED into the price. he stumbled out of the
> gate and ran OK afterwards.
>
> And nobody that understands this game should ever
> say that a horse would win the Derby 95 times out
> of 100. That is right up there with the guy who
> said yesterday that Frosted undoubtedly ran the
> best race in the Derby, with the "eye test".
>
> Silly stuff.
>
> Good luck
>
> Rob

I didn't criticize anything. I gave an analysis, based on historical results. If that's criticizing, then everyone with a different viewpoint is a critic. How many horses have fired in the Derby with the same foundation Materiality had?

As for posting horses that had no shot, I have no idea what you are talking about. I don't do it often, but they are far from no shots or run up the track. I was the first person to post BC weekend with a $25 winner. Posted on Derby day 2 horses that ran second at 9/1 or better. I specifically posted that I liked Firing Line, and was well aware of the number Materiality had run. I liked the foundation and preparation for FL much better, despite the "inferior" numbers.

Maybe you can dig in the archives and find a few horses that ran up the track, like you can do for anyone that posts a pick beforehand. Look no further than the last 2 TC races. The board was littered with selections that ran up the track. When you play longer shots, they can lose miserably. That's far from a revelation.

Yes, I like to beat favorites. We all do. I'm aware of the number of times you need to be right to win playing long shots every day. Of course we all pick horses that run up the track. What you may see as no shot, I see a horse that has one. I hit a $70+ horse at SA Saturday that my buddy said had no shot, None. I don't care that you or he or anyone else has a different opinion. That what makes the game tick.

When citing figs, I like to keep them in context. Materiality may have been fast enough, but with his foundation I thought the likelihood he would run to it wasn't very good. You can cite whatever excuse you want, he didn't. 15-1 was worth the risk to some, it wasn't for others.

P-Dub