Michael,

What you say is true, but...

are these guys able to walk around and say, "hey, that one looks like a good 9f horse, but he won't make 10-12f."

or do they say

"hey, that one may be able to run all day."

I think you'll get more of the latter (especially when there is big money on the line). I don't think they shave it that close. If they think a horse has stamina, they think he can get 10f if they think he can get 9f. I could be wrong...

On a slight tangent, in my observation, quite a few horses have won at 9f (and 10f) over the past few years and at first glance at their pedigrees, you might say, "hey, that horse can't get the distance..." So maybe the "speed" slant in breeding is being further encouraged by the success of some of these unlikely....successes!

In terms of the larger question, Jerry looks at every track every damn day, and I've got to believe his overview has some merit based on his experience. Every figure maker has to make "the leap" with that subjective final variant, and I have some amount of faith in Jerry on this since I have gotten positive results with his data over a period of years.... Other than that, it's probably impossible for me or anyone else to conclusively prove this case, except for some of the "common sense" points I made above.

HP