Taste of Paradise - Fires a good race from time to time, but is generally a notch or two below these.

Gators and Bears - Consistent runner that fits here very well. Major contender.

New York Hero - Hasn't done enough lately to merit support here.

Saratoga County - Just turned 4YO that blossomed nicely after showing some promise early in his career. Is suited to 7F and as a just turned 4yo could possibly make more progress this year (even if not today) instead of heading backwards. Major contender.

Unforgettable Max - Fits well at this level. Has done his best running when able to shake loose early - which won't happen here with Don Six in the race, but can be rated and still run well. Was used hard in the middle part of the Cigar trying to stay with a torrid internal fraction. That race can safely be tossed out. Has been away from the races for more than 2 months. Trainer has a decent record with this kind of layoff, but this is a stakes race and generally you have be wound up 100% to win a stakes unless you lay over the field. UM does not lay over this field and if he is wound up 100% IMO that could be a bad training move. Contender.

Don Six - showed a lot of ability early and has exploded forward for "move up trainer" Scott Lake. Lake's horses tend to hold togther even when they run big ones. Looks like the primary speed. The two most likely ways to beat him are that he's probably better at 6F than 7f and someone could always show more speed than expected and prevent him from shaking loose like he did in his last 2 spectacular performances. Other than that he looks best. Major Contender.

Booca Al Lupo - Last wasn't bad, but seems to be a notch or 2 below these at this time.

Houston's Prayer - Occasionally fires a big enough shot to get himself in the thick of this, but is a notch below the best.

Private Horde - Seems to do his best running on wet tracks. Would not shock. He's not far off these at all.

I think the logical 4 horses to focus on are Gators and Bears, Saratoga County, Don Six and Unforgettable Max.

If you put a gun to my head, I'd probably say Don Six is the most likely winner because I believe it is more likely he will shake loose and get 7F in his current condition than has been the case in the past. However, those are vulnerabilities in what appear to be superior figures. So I don't think it would be wise to bet on him at a short price.

Gators and Bears and Saratoga County are very similar in probability of winning. I'll take the minority opinion and say I think Saratoga County is more likely to improve than G&B because he just turned 4. However, G&B has some excellent races against very good company. Call it a draw.

Unforgettable Max is probably the only one of the centenders that may get overlooked in the betting. Personally though, I do not like to back horses that I think aren't best just because they are a better price when I think there are potential flaws. I think UM does his best racing when loose and I'd prefer that he was coming back to the races within 4-8 weeks and not over 2 months. I rank him below the other 3.

Any of the other horses could theoretically be an overlay at some price, but I generally won't go that deep into a field of horses looking for an overlay.

I suspect there won't be a big enough overlay in this race to merit a wager.



Post Edited (02-20-05 17:20)