Re: ROTW (369 Views)
Posted by:
Mall (IP Logged)
Date: February 21, 2005 07:29AM
Not a lot to go on as they've been running on a brand new track for less than a mo., but rightly or wrongly, the info which is available played an important part in my thinking:
1.In the 34 7f races which have been run on a fast track, the avg field size was 8, 38% were won wire to wire, 59% of the winners were in the top 3 at the 1st call, avg beaten lengths at the 1st call was 3 & at the 2nd call was 2.8, S horses had a .42 impact value, & the 3 inside posts were at an advantage.
2. Everything the same for the two 7f races run on a wet track, except that one went wtw, & the winners of both were in the top 3 at the 1st call.
Many have pointed out that even when the sample size is large enough for statistical validity, these kinds of nos should be used sparingly if at all in stakes races, but for what it's worth, if you decide to ignore the warning, gnb, don, max, & sar(sometimes) are the ones that best fit the win profile. The pts made re max & the distance & 2 turns are well taken, but HP, the horse not the mia poster, who appears best at the distance, & PH, both figure to be coming from 5 or more back at both calls. Also, show me a horse w/o any questions in a race like this & I'll show you a horse which is going to go off at a lot lower odds than Max.
P.S. To the (unreal?) M.D.: Chris & I did make the show, but were both very much, if I can borrow one poster's handle, bit players.