I'm a civilian this week, so I get to discuss the ROTW like everybody else. But first, great job by SoCal, and the line about children getting slower is a classic.

My thoughts-- Don Six is the most likely winner (note that the DRF consensus does not have him 1-2-3, whatsupwithat?). The value in the race probably comes in playing exotics and throwing out Taste of Paradise (probably faster on Ragozin, given that he comes out of 1 turn Socal races), and Saratoga County, because of the two forward moves and the amount of development from the 3 as recently as last fall.

Other comments--

Gators N Bears-- #!%&#, chapter 10. Had this horse bought in September of his 3yo year, my client had his local trainer watch him work, trainer said the horse was unsound and woudn't stand training much longer. Twelve starts later, none of which is worse than 1 3/4, and 7 of which are negative, he joins a list that includes Xtra Heat (after her second lifetime start), Magic Weisner (for 100k, right before he won 6 straight and ran second in the Preakness), Glitter Woman (after her first start), and both Brass Hat and Josh's Madelyn for five figures each early last year.

But I don't see why he's not supposed to go back a couple of points today-- last time he hit the neg 3 he did, despite having 2 months, and now he's coming back much quicker. If he catches an off track on top of that, he becomes very shaky.

Unforgettable Max-- I think he'll run well, and I for one think his tactical speed is a plus. But he's only got one number that makes him strong here-- if he puts in somewhere around a zero or slightly better he figures to get a check, but is very unlikely to win-- you don't find too many stakes where NONE of the fast horses run a top, and too many have better tops or similar ones to him. Even if he does get back to his top, he's only maybe 25% to win. Value underneath, maybe.

Houston's Prayer-- How come nobody is talking about this one? His last 2 are as good as all UM's except one, he has nice time since his last, Iwinski has started getting numbers again, and you know Friedman is going to have Thornton stay inside. No reason this one can't get a check, definitely one I would use underneath.

Private Horde-- If there has ever been a better off track horse than this I don't remember it-- every off track number on his sheet is a top, and we're not talking 8's and 10's here. Yes, the pair of crazy numbers with short rest could cause a bounce, and he drew outside. But he's really fast, and 12-1 morning line. And if it's an off track, he's the play.

If it's a fast track (and as I write this it is), it's Don Six over the other four in tris and supers.



TGJB