Re: ROTW (415 Views)
Date: February 21, 2005 10:14AM
I've studied pace figures and pace matchups to death and believe me when I say being the inferior speed horse "in a duel" is a disasterous trip.
Now if the second speed is versatile enough to lay off the primary speed and still win - which I agree Max is - then primary speed/secondary speed issues are not as important. The second speed can sit off the leader and easily wait to challenge until later in the race.
Some of UM's route pace figures may be similar to Don Six's sprint pace figures, but by definition that makes the sprinter the quicker horse.
Just so we don't go off on a tangent. I'm not bashing UM's chances in this race. He's one of the contenders and IMO only a little less likely than Don Six, G&B and Saratoga County (on a fast track).
I am just pointing out that 3 of his 4 lifetime wins came when he got a loose lead and Don Six is the faster horse assuming he remains as sharp as he was last time out. So I consider a duel to be a problem for him and a stalking effort to not be his best style.
I consider that a small negative for UM that I would require slightly higher odds to compensate me for.
Post Edited (02-21-05 10:49)
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