I am not redboarding at all.

My odds line was very clear.

I was hoping to get a bet on Saratoga County.

I thought going in that Don Six would be too short a price off his 6F figure and vulnerability at 7F.

I knew going in I wasn't going to bet UM even though the price might look tempting because I thought his style was deficient for this specific race and I didn't want a horse that needed a peak performance in a stakes race off more than a 2 month layoff.

That left Saratoga County and G&B as the only potential bets based on my view of what the odds would be (which I didn't discuss). They were approximately even and IMO not far off Don Six at 7F.

Given that the consensus view was that SC was slower and likely to regress, I was hoping that would make him bettable for me. I did not share that consensus view. I have different views on fluctuations of figures. I believe I can account for many of them on a trip basis and many of the rest are no different than why I bowl 150 one game, 175 the next game, 200 the next game and then back to 165.

I am very big on getting the general direction of the horse's form right and the general probability of him improving or going backwards.

I didn't pick him to win for sure.

Not taking credit for picking him. I am taking credit for not thinking he was the big underlay to key against.

For the record, Don Six set a very fast pace. It doesn't matter who actually won. IMO, Don Six was clearly best even though he will come back with a slower figure than several other horses. Had he rated loose on the lead just a little bit better, he would have won by a clear margin.



Post Edited (02-23-05 14:30)