Couple of quick comments --

1) The race goes off at 12:19 AM Tuesday in Moscow, Russia. People here think Moscow, Idaho is "smeshno" (that means funny)

2) Thank you to everybody for the kind comments.

3) On pace, we could see all sorts of things. TOP and GNB could surprise out of the gate. The gate speed in California is different than in the east, and Mandella's horse may be wondering where everybody went. GNB had a speedy recent work over the strip which indicates his connections may be thinking about what they need to do differently to crack this nut. I think UM has good speed but can also sit back if others are sent. I think the horses on the outside are weaker in terms of early speed than they appear. DS of course may well still clear (but hopefully at a cost). He has a confirmed frontrunner running style which is absent elsewhere in this race. His style has only been exaggerated since the change of barns. Also, Lake allegedly worked him 2 furlongs on Saturday, and Luzzi, while generally awful, was able to get this guy his best break out of the gate on the DRF PPs.

4) As to Saratoga County, I want to address something Classhandicapper said and make clear that my analyis of that Saratoga County in the ROTW only applies for the purposes of today. I think the horse has a healthy sheet and a bright future. I just think today is not a good day to be betting on him (unless the crowd lets him go off at a rich price I don't think they will). He is a young horse and, health permitting, will improve to the point he would be the legitimate favorite in this same race on another day (next year, maybe?). I just think if you look at him, he has spurts of improvement (two as a three year old) and periods of backing off. He seems to be coming to the end of an improvement spurt. I do not expect him to go too far back, and I definitely think he is going to be seeing good new tops later. As I mentioned, I could be wrong on my timing with him, but, if he is 3-1 and has to go around horses, I would rather take my chances. If I AM wrong about him today, then I hopefully will have a chance to get my money back when he gets even more over bet next time.



Post Edited (02-21-05 09:49)