Re: ROTW (450 Views)
Posted by:
Even for Life (IP Logged)
Date: February 21, 2005 01:10PM
Track is listed as fast at Laurel. We had rain for about 3 hours last night,but no big deal after a bit of a dry spell.
I enjoyed the ROTW Analysis. Well done and I can always learn from others perspective.
I like Unforgettable Max at 5-1 or better. I can see Don Six getting enough pace pressure from Taste of Paradise (SCal speed, going 7f, and running to pace of the O'brien, where he dueled Pico Central in 43.4) and Private Horde, who has been close to the lead with fast fractions his last few.
Will Don Six clear these, and can he get 7 furlongs? Obviously how you answer this is how you will bet. I think Max #'s are strong enough (improved to the -1 as a new top, then regressed to the 2 after coming back on three weeks rest, with tough internal fractions in the Cigar against Pico Central. Now back after little less then 3 months race, with a trainer that is good off a short layoff). The problem is he can improve off the -1, and still not be fast enough against this crew. I can envision him sitting off a pace that is more contested than some would think, and running strong through the lane. As always the odds/value will dictate the bet. I don't think Don Six and the risk/reward profile is worth the 6-5 or less that will probably be available.
I also think Max actually has the running style for an extended sprint (7F) horse. Cutting back from the mile race with some decent works (stong 58 2/5 B for Pha--although I prefer to see him working more then every 15 days) and the ability to be on near the lead. Plus he has been facing some strong competition--Ghostzapper, Midas Eyes, and Pico Central).
Speaking of the development of Saratoga County -- who I don't like (I don't think he is fast enough for this group, even off the breakthrough figure in his last), did you catch the reason for his improvement as told via the front page story of in DRF:
"Things began to turn around last fall when George Weaver decided to change the colt's training methods. Instead of working him in company where he would lay on horses and get lazy in the stretch, Weaver put blinkers on Saratoga County and had the rider get after him. Five of his last workouts have been bullets".
This made some sense to me; Weaver then added the brillant "It seems to have helped, but I also think he's just doing better"...
Even for Life