Your Ask The Experts ID
is separate from your
Order Online Account ID
 Race of the Week:  2024 Kentucky Oaks/Derby Days Final Figures Churchill Downs May 3 & May 4, 2024 
Order Online
Buy TG Data
Complete Menu of
TG Data products
Simulcast Books
Customize a Value
Package of Select
TG Data
Sheet Requests
Order The Last Figure for Any Horse
Free Products
Redboard Room
Download and Review previous days' data.
Race of the Week
With detailed comments
ThoroTrack
Email notification when your horse races
Information
Introduction
For newcomers.
Samples and Tutorials
For Horsemen
Consulting services and Graph Racing
Sales Sites
Where to buy TG around the country
Archives
Historical races and handicapping articles
Handicapping
Hall of Fame
Major handicapping contest winners
Home Page
Re: ROTW (435 Views)
Posted by: (IP Logged)
Date: February 20, 2005 03:42PM

mall,

UM has 3 very good wins when he got loose and 1 win in a NW1 allowance race at 6F off the pace. If you believe that speed figures are gospel descriptions of performance, you won't agree with my conclusion that he runs better when he gets loose.

He also has some very good races from off the pace. That's why I didn't say he needs to be loose. I think it would help, but he could win without the lead.

Let's put it this way. If he's ding donging through the stretch with one of the other major contenders, I'd rather have the other horse. If for some reason he shook loose of Don Six, I expect him to keep going and win.

I do not use pace figures to project who I think will be on the lead. I use them to evaluate performances. Horses are rated. They generally only run as fast early as they are required to run to get the position they want. Don Six has recorded some blistering early speed in the past at 6F and is extremely sharp right now. I don't see anyone that can run with him early without severely compromising their chances. (based on style and fractions)

That being said, there is always a chance someone will. So since he was loose last time, I would be reluctant to give him full credit for that performance because it is not 100% he will get loose again even though it might be likely. The pace figure itself for his last race was in line with the final time figure - which makes it quite fast.



Post Edited (02-20-05 17:44)



Subject Written By Posted
ROTW (738 Views) TGJB 02/18/2005 05:57PM
Re: ROTW (482 Views) 02/20/2005 10:23AM
Re: ROTW (511 Views) 02/20/2005 11:44AM
Re: ROTW (430 Views) Mall 02/20/2005 01:38PM
Re: ROTW (435 Views) 02/20/2005 03:42PM
Re: ROTW (462 Views) Mall 02/20/2005 06:46PM
Re: ROTW (441 Views) 02/20/2005 07:07PM
Re: ROTW (452 Views) Mall 02/20/2005 08:39PM
Problematic Max (534 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 02/20/2005 09:13PM
Re: ROTW (417 Views) 02/21/2005 10:14AM
Re: ROTW (483 Views) 02/21/2005 10:48AM
Re: ROTW (517 Views) spa 02/21/2005 12:25PM
Re: ROTW (451 Views) Even for Life 02/21/2005 01:10PM
Re: ROTW and One v. Two Turns (422 Views) BitPlayer 02/21/2005 11:58AM
Re: ROTW and One v. Two Turns (452 Views) SoCalMan2 02/21/2005 01:41PM
Re: ROTW and One v. Two Turns (427 Views) BitPlayer 02/21/2005 11:05PM
Re: ROTW and One v. Two Turns (422 Views) 02/21/2005 02:23PM
Re: ROTW and One v. Two Turns (475 Views) 4singles2all 02/21/2005 02:52PM
Re: ROTW and One v. Two Turns (475 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 02/21/2005 03:02PM
Re: ROTW (452 Views) Michael D. 02/20/2005 08:57PM
Re: ROTW (525 Views) jimbo66 02/21/2005 01:52AM
Re: ROTW (370 Views) Mall 02/21/2005 07:29AM
Re: ROTW (468 Views) SoCalMan2 02/21/2005 09:36AM
Re: ROTW (484 Views) TGJB 02/21/2005 01:17PM
Re: ROTW (414 Views) 02/21/2005 02:13PM
Re: ROTW (520 Views) 02/21/2005 02:28PM
Re: ROTW (468 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 02/21/2005 02:39PM
Re: ROTW (522 Views) Michael D. 02/21/2005 05:46PM
Re: ROTW (508 Views) 02/21/2005 06:17PM
Re: ROTW (420 Views) Michael D. 02/21/2005 06:49PM
Re: ROTW (410 Views) 02/21/2005 06:58PM
Re: ROTW (527 Views) JohnTChance 02/21/2005 07:04PM
Re: ROTW (451 Views) 02/22/2005 12:03PM
SoCalMan2nd (488 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 02/21/2005 07:48PM
Re: SoCalMan2nd (461 Views) jimbo66 02/22/2005 01:15AM
Re: SoCalMan2nd (438 Views) msola1 02/22/2005 07:25AM
Re: SoCalMan2nd (383 Views) Michael D. 02/22/2005 11:20AM
Re: SoCalMan2nd (486 Views) 02/22/2005 01:55PM
Re: SoCalMan2nd (467 Views) jimbo66 02/22/2005 05:29PM
To CH (463 Views) jimbo66 02/22/2005 05:31PM
Re: SoCalMan2nd (440 Views) 02/23/2005 11:58AM
Re: SoCalMan2nd (428 Views) gvido 02/23/2005 12:46PM
Re: SoCalMan2nd (451 Views) jbelfior 02/23/2005 02:23PM
Re: SoCalMan2nd (410 Views) 02/22/2005 02:55PM
Re: ROTW (430 Views) 02/21/2005 04:38PM
Re: ROTW (438 Views) 02/21/2005 04:50PM
Re: ROTW (487 Views) spa 02/20/2005 12:46PM
Re: ROTW (402 Views) TGJB 02/20/2005 01:53PM
Re: ROTW (524 Views) derby1592 02/20/2005 02:22PM
Re: ROTW (469 Views) mholbert 02/20/2005 04:57PM
Re: ROTW (429 Views) jbelfior 02/23/2005 08:05AM
Re: ROTW (514 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 02/23/2005 11:04AM
Re: ROTW (421 Views) jbelfior 02/23/2005 11:31AM


Sorry, only registered users may post in this forum.
This forum powered by Phorum.

Thoro-Graph 180 Varick Street New York, NY 10014 ---- Click here for the Ask The Experts Archives.