Re: ROTW (435 Views)
Date: February 20, 2005 03:42PM
mall,
UM has 3 very good wins when he got loose and 1 win in a NW1 allowance race at 6F off the pace. If you believe that speed figures are gospel descriptions of performance, you won't agree with my conclusion that he runs better when he gets loose.
He also has some very good races from off the pace. That's why I didn't say he needs to be loose. I think it would help, but he could win without the lead.
Let's put it this way. If he's ding donging through the stretch with one of the other major contenders, I'd rather have the other horse. If for some reason he shook loose of Don Six, I expect him to keep going and win.
I do not use pace figures to project who I think will be on the lead. I use them to evaluate performances. Horses are rated. They generally only run as fast early as they are required to run to get the position they want. Don Six has recorded some blistering early speed in the past at 6F and is extremely sharp right now. I don't see anyone that can run with him early without severely compromising their chances. (based on style and fractions)
That being said, there is always a chance someone will. So since he was loose last time, I would be reluctant to give him full credit for that performance because it is not 100% he will get loose again even though it might be likely. The pace figure itself for his last race was in line with the final time figure - which makes it quite fast.
Post Edited (02-20-05 17:44)