Re: Saratoga Morning Line (1078 Views)
Posted by:
jimbo66 (IP Logged)
Date: August 04, 2016 05:42PM
Hoarse
All your points aren't valid, when the ML sucks
Who cares who drifts where off a bad ML.
When a horse takes significant action from where any reasonably knowledgeable handicapper thinks they should be, it makes sense to take notice.
Same race as yesterday as a case in point. While I correctly pointed out that Stone was clueless on the 12 at 12-1 ML, I thought he would be no worse than 3rd choice, with the 4 and 10. When he opened shortest pick-4, shortest pick-3 and shortest double, in the will pays, it represented significant action for a horse with a long layoff right after being claimed. Throw in that it is a sharp trainer whose horses often get smashed at the windows when they are "live" and it would have been foolish to ignore the action when looking at vertical bets. (Not saying u have to be a lemming and follow the action, but factor the action into your pre-race assessment, and if u feel it warrants a change in strategy, so be it)
Deviation from where a horse should be always worth noting. But u have to know where a horse "should be" to take advantage of it. Like most people that have spent way too much betting and analyzing horses, I see maybe 1 in 10 or 1 in 15 races where rhe betting is shocking or I was way off (every Kentucky derby it seems). The problem with Stone is this happens to him every 4th race at saratoga. Shameful
Jim