Re: Saratoga Morning Line (856 Views)
Posted by:
SoCalMan2 (IP Logged)
Date: August 06, 2016 08:57AM
P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> SoCalMan2 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > P-Dub Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > I can't believe all of the consternation over
> > the
> > > ML.
> > >
> > > Bad MLs happen all over the country. Races
> > > everywhere, routinely, have horses drift up
> or
> > > down from the ML. Every day. Ever see a ML
> > from
> > > Evangeline Downs or CharlesTown? The actual
> > odds
> > > can be wildly different from the ML. Yes, the
> > > pools are smaller. But it happens. It happens
> > > everywhere.
> > >
> > > Ok, so maybe the guy doing Saratoga isn't as
> > > accurate as other places. I get it. It still
> > > shouldn't warrant all of the commotion.
> > >
> > > I agree 100% with MJellish. "Point 2: The job
> > of
> > > the handicapper is to try to figure out our
> own
> > > line of who will most likely hit the board so
> > we
> > > can decide if it offers value enough to bet
> our
> > > money to hopefully cash a ticket. This is
> > > irrespective of whatever the morning line
> > person
> > > says."
> > >
> > > Its your responsibility, after handicapping
> the
> > > race, to figure out who offers value. You
> can
> > do
> > > this by looking at the data. How many times
> > have
> > > we seen a ROTW mention a horse with hidden
> form,
> > a
> > > poor finishing position relative to the trip
> he
> > > got? This horse could be ML 4/1 and drift to
> > 7/1.
> > > He could be ML 10/1 and drop to 7/2. Happens
> > all
> > > over the country. That's not the fault of the
> > ML
> > > guy. You expect the guy to have a crystal
> ball,
> > > and accurately predict the betting patterns
> of
> > the
> > > public every stinking race? Especially with
> the
> > > abundance of 2YOs and FTS?
> > >
> > > I've handicapped P3/4, and have seen ML that
> I
> > > don't agree with. I construct my tickets
> > > according to how I feel the race will be bet.
> > > Enough with the complaining about it taking
> > more
> > > time. That time is negligible. Yes, the ML
> > should
> > > assist you. But if you see a sequence with a
> > bad
> > > ML, then its your job to compensate for that.
> > Some
> > > of the examples given, regarding how it
> affects
> > > you or hypothetical situations, are just
> > > ridiculous.
> > >
> > > He's had a rough meet making the line, and it
> > can
> > > make it challenging to construct tickets. Put
> > your
> > > big boy pants on and work around it.
> >
> > You are such a talented handicapper that you
> don't
> > need extra time to figure out if the ML is
> right
> > or wrong. That is good for you. Some of us are
> not
> > as smart as you and it takes us extra time to
> do
> > that. It must not come as a surprise to you
> that
> > there are handicappers less talented than you.
> >
> > The ML is by definition an estimate or a
> > projection. It will always never be right. The
> > issue for those of us not as talented as you
> > whether the misses are often and huge or are
> > misses within a zone of reasonableness.
> >
> > Unfortunately, telling its customers to put on
> > their big boy pants and take it in the rear is
> SOP
> > at the NYRA.
>
> Little touchy there?
>
> It has nothing to do with me being "better" or
> "smarter". And yes, your sarcasm was very clear.
>
> It has to do with me dealing with it. I don't
> waste my energy writing 50 paragraphs on a forum,
> and complain over and over and over about the same
> thing.
>
> Again. Try to comprehend this. It happens EVERY
> FREAKING DAY at EVERY FREAKING TRACK. You think
> this is just a Saratoga issue? Horses drift up or
> down from their ML all the time.
>
> Perhaps you are right about me being smarter and a
> better handicapper. I can figure out which horses
> should get action, and which ones should be
> longer. You desperately need help in that
> department. Its a piss poor excuse, blaming the ML
> for you having difficulties making wagers.
If you think the ML is so irrelevant, then racetracks across America can save money by firing all their linemakers. Nothing requires the Track to have a linemaker. They do it because it is perceived as being a courtesy to customers and to facilitate betting. If it is truly as irrelevant as you believe it is, the industry is making a big mistake on spending money on something that nobody cares about when that money could be better spent on something else for the customers.