Re: Saratoga Morning Line (981 Views)
Posted by:
SoCalMan2 (IP Logged)
Date: August 05, 2016 11:58AM
johnnym Wrote:
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> I understand but yet I don't if that makes sense.
> Do you guys handicap to pick a winner or to find
> what his correct odds should be which is extremely
> subjective.
> As was mentioned the Derby is a perfect example.
> As a sharp investor much like a under valued stock
> a ML that is way of in my favor I would pound it.
> I understand some of you here have probably
> forgotten more than I will ever know but after
> reading and trying to understand the points being
> made I think sometimes you out smart yourselves.
> I have enough of an issue picking a winner.
> Good luck
> John
Imagine the following --
You want to bet on a horse to win a race, but at the time of the race going off, you are going to be blocked from the internet and you are not going to be able to see the live odds. If you are going to bet the race, you need to place your bets ahead of time.
The race is a match race -- only two horses -- one with a 2/3 chance of winning and one with a 1/3 chance of winning. In such a match race, I could bet either horse to win. The thing that will make me decide which horse to bet is what is the price I am being offered. If I am getting even money on the favorite, I will bet the favorite. If the favorite is 1-10 and the longshot is 5-1, I am going to bet the longshot.
If you cannot bet the race live, you need to make your bets based on what you believe the odds will be. Usually, you trust the linemaker. If you do not trust the linemaker, you make your own assessment of what the odds will be which is extra work.
If a good linemaker has the ML on the race at both horses being 4-5, then it is a no brainer to take the favorite.
But in this case the linemaker who made both horses 4-5 suffered from temporary insanity and it turns out the line actually goes off at 1-10 and 5-1 and any normal linemaker not suffering from temporary insanity would have pegged it right.
The question is -- did I do the extra work or not. If I did the extra work, then I bet the longshot notwithstanding the 4-5 faulty ML. If I did not do the extra work, I bet the favorite because I thought the 4-5 was a good price for a horse with a 66.67% chance of winning.
Now, it doesn't matter who wins and who loses. I am going to be angry if I bet a 1-10 shot when I could have bet a 5-1 shot.
The actual winner is not relevant.