Re: Saratoga Morning Line (1098 Views)
Posted by:
P-Dub (IP Logged)
Date: August 05, 2016 04:20PM
I can't believe all of the consternation over the ML.
Bad MLs happen all over the country. Races everywhere, routinely, have horses drift up or down from the ML. Every day. Ever see a ML from Evangeline Downs or CharlesTown? The actual odds can be wildly different from the ML. Yes, the pools are smaller. But it happens. It happens everywhere.
Ok, so maybe the guy doing Saratoga isn't as accurate as other places. I get it. It still shouldn't warrant all of the commotion.
I agree 100% with MJellish. "Point 2: The job of the handicapper is to try to figure out our own line of who will most likely hit the board so we can decide if it offers value enough to bet our money to hopefully cash a ticket. This is irrespective of whatever the morning line person says."
Its your responsibility, after handicapping the race, to figure out who offers value. You can do this by looking at the data. How many times have we seen a ROTW mention a horse with hidden form, a poor finishing position relative to the trip he got? This horse could be ML 4/1 and drift to 7/1. He could be ML 10/1 and drop to 7/2. Happens all over the country. That's not the fault of the ML guy. You expect the guy to have a crystal ball, and accurately predict the betting patterns of the public every stinking race? Especially with the abundance of 2YOs and FTS?
I've handicapped P3/4, and have seen ML that I don't agree with. I construct my tickets according to how I feel the race will be bet. Enough with the complaining about it taking more time. That time is negligible. Yes, the ML should assist you. But if you see a sequence with a bad ML, then its your job to compensate for that. Some of the examples given, regarding how it affects you or hypothetical situations, are just ridiculous.
He's had a rough meet making the line, and it can make it challenging to construct tickets. Put your big boy pants on and work around it.
P-Dub