Re: Saratoga Morning Line (1099 Views)
Posted by:
mlnolan00 (IP Logged)
Date: August 20, 2016 03:21AM
Not that I'm talking anyone off 20-1s but morning Line aside, I'm curious why people would be so eager to bet this one, especially at less than 20-1.
Per the workouts, this guy looks like a big, lanky, goofy tween who wants more than 6F, especially first time out.
There is a much better option at 20-1 earlier in the card for those who did their homework and the price should hold as well.
Compare and watch the works of 747 (http://www.obssales.com/juncatalog/2016/747.mp4), Favorable Outcome (http://www.obssales.com/marcatalog/2016/246.mp4 super nice, fluid lead change), and even the Properity Mo (http://www.obssales.com/juncatalog/2016/447.mp4) out of that same OBS June (the outlet mall of 2yos sales, no disrespect) and tell me why you feel most confident betting the 9 in R7 because I'm really curious to know if there is something I'm not seeing. Chad's looks and reads as if it's the most likely winner here, and he even outworked that Mirai recently.
I likewise see that Ingrid's worked with a FTS winner (but DQed) at Arlington but that's a long way from SAR imho. Furthermore, even if this 9 did look like it had some precocity about it, the pedigree is sporadic and relatively unproductive, especially for 2yos on dirt. I can read a sire list like anyone else and while Tiz Wonderful is fine with FTS, they typically aren't as gawky as this one and he's not exactly tearing things up recently, hence why he was exported last Spring.
Godspeed if you decide to go all-in on Ingrid's (PS she hasn't won with a FTS on dirt in 2yrs) but I think if Chad doesn't win then Rudy, Ron or Steve (the 3/4 to Pyro & Longview Dr., and full to early SW War Echo) are on deck, then followed by Ingrid, DWL, and Ward.
if I've totally misread this race, please school me because I was planning on singling Favorable Outcome. All of these reasons likewise make me think the 20-1 ML is legitimate. Anything less than maybe 12-1 feels like a dangerous underlay.