richiebee Wrote:
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> SoCalMan2 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
>
> > First, why would this guy have any credibility?
>
> > His lines speak volumes already. We know
> enough
> > already to know that anything he says on the
> topic
> > cannot be trusted. The big problem is that his
> > employer is an even bigger idiot than he is and
> > doesn't understand this.
> >
> > However, I would not focus on races filled with
> > first time starters. Those races should be
> hard
> > for any linemaker and you would expect a field
> of
> > first time starters to vary quite a bit from
> the
> > line. You may well be right that he botched
> the
> > line in the race you are talking about, but
> that
> > race should be more difficult than a simple
> race
> > with obvious horses with well established form.
> >
> > The real problem is that he is missing the chip
> > shots and he is not just missing them, he is
> not
> > even remotely in the ballpark.....he is not
> even
> > in the furthest auxiliary parking lot from the
> > ballpark.
> >
> > The only good news is that he revealed how bad
> he
> > was very fast, so that astute players rapidly
> > understood not to trust him and to adjust.
> > Unfortunately, to get newcomers and novices
> into
> > our sport, we are supposed to make it less
> > bewildering not more bewildering. This is a
> > problem for people who want this support to be
> > sustainable -- it does not appear that the NYRA
> > even considers that question.
>
> I grow rather weary of Travis Stone's bad morning
> lines -- and there have been
> some rather inexplicable ones -- being blamed for
> everything from global
> warming to the Palestinian problem.
>
> SoCalMan, I will concede the following:
>
> (1)Some horseplayers/handicappers rely on an
> accurate morning line;
> 2) Chris Kay is not a horseplayer/handicapper, so
> he is probably not aware of
> (1);
> 3) NYRA (and race tracks and administrators all
> over the U.S) marginalize the
> importance of horseplayers to the industry;
> 4) Travis Stone is already on the payroll as a
> backup race caller (he is a
> very good race caller, by the way) as insurance
> for when Larry "the Screamer"
> Collmus1 finally blows out a lung or tears a vocal
> chord. NYRA, in
> an attempt to balance the legit (no slot revenue)
> books, got one of their
> employees to multi-task. The timing (Saratoga) was
> bad; the training of Mr.
> Stone was probably non existent.
>
> These are all problems, and yes, representative of
> larger problems in the
> racing industry,
>
> HOWEVER, this is one of the longest threads of the
> Saratoga meet, and while
> there is some anecdotal evidence (specific races
> with bad morning lines), some
> name calling, some hand wringing, threats to play
> elsewhere, etc, what I
> suggest is the following:
>
> 1) For a day, a week, the entire meet, or even ONE
> race, someone take Travis
> Stone's morning line for a particular race
> (available in many places) and
> then, after the race is run, get the chart for
> that race and compare Stone's
> ML to the off odds. You might even end up with
> some empirical evidence which
> could be presented to NYRA to drive home the point
> that Stone's MLs are not
> accurate (might be a harder sell convincing
> someone at NYRA that this bad
> morning line making is hurting business).
>
> 2)Anyone feel free to answer this, although I
> suspect Rocky is going to hit me
> with 10 or 12 articles to read: How can a crafty
> horseplayer take ADVANTAGE of
> a consistently bad morning line?
>
> ------------
> Best and worse of Larry at the Spa this summer:
> Best: His call that Songbird
> was "whistling past the graveyard of champions" in
> the CCA Oaks was very
> inventive. Worst: when Flintshire dropped to last
> in the four horse field, LC
> got a little overwrought, as if he were covering a
> natural disaster (I almost
> expected him to utter "Oh, the humanity!"). The
> truth was that Flintshire was
> never in danger of losing this race, and LC went
> for drama over an accurate
> race call.

RichieBee,

All fair and good.

I am still feeling the sting of yesterday's non-DQ (leaving a favorite up in the supposed graveyard of favorites I will point out). I need to go sit in a good steam at the best shvitz I can find (in even more short supply in the USA than diligent racing officials), and then I will revisit this question.

For sure a bad ML is a good thing for advanced players. It is a bad thing for the hoi polloi. This is the dilemma that was faced in the online poker world....You need to be able to juice the fish, but you dont want to juice them so well that no more show up. It is the same balancing act that El Gran Senor faced in trying not to squeeze the lemon dry. My view is that the advanced player already has enough edge over the less advanced, we are in an era where we need to expand the pool.