Re: Going Wild with a Derby Rabbit? (490 Views)
Posted by:
jimbo66 (IP Logged)
Date: April 12, 2005 10:46AM
Chris,
I will just agree to disagree about Going Wild. If he runs, I feel he will have no impact on the race. To me, when a horse with natural speed stops showing it early in races, that is one of the best signs of a horse that is "off form". Going Wild showed less early pace in the SA race, then even less in the Wood. Yes, on his best day, he can run 45, 1:09. He has already. But he won't in the Derby, at least that is what I think. A non-factor.
As for High Limit's improvement in the Blue Grass, I understand that you would expect improvement based on his 2-year old numbers and with any kind of maturation, he should run better. But two things. First, wouldn't you have expected him to run better in the LA Derby from a figure standpoint, considering he was "first time Frankel" and had 6 months to mature. With a different trainer, I would say that I expect big improvement second time out, but Frankel's horses fire fresh, which brings me to my second point. I have ready Jerry comment many times that Frankel's pattern with horses is that they fire their best figures off the layoff and then don't bounce, but also don't improve during a campaign much. You really expect a jump forward in the BlueGrass anyway? I don't really disagree, because I like the horse too, but I wonder about improvement in the Bluegrass. Frankel manages his 3-year olds a little different and I am hoping that he didn't have him fully cranked for the LA Derby, because he will have to run faster to beat Sun King, Consolidator and Bandini. The other factor that concerns me is that Frankel is a "sheets guy". I guess he has some relationship with Ragozin. As such, he has to know that if High Limit fires a bullet 3 weeks out from the Derby that probably does not set him up well for the Derby and makes him a bounce candidate. If he knows/believes that, he may not have High Limit fully cranked for the Blue Grass.
Bottom line for me is that 5-2 is a good bet on High Limit, when you factor everything in, assuming the field stays in tact.