My Closing Argument on the BG (485 Views)
Posted by:
derby1592 (IP Logged)
Date: April 12, 2005 05:11PM
If you plan to take a stand against one or more of the faves in the exotics and you are looking for a longshot to help boost the price, you might want to consider the one horse that nobody has mentioned - Closing Argument. He has a live line and comes into the race fresh and other than High Limit looks to me like the horse in the race most likely to improve. The obvious negative is the hiccup in his training that caused him to miss the Fla Derby.
CA is already faster than Bandini and Bandini has already developed quite a bit this year and is not that likely to move forward for Pletcher in the 4th race of his 3yo campaign.
CA is a couple points slower than Consolidator but note that Consolidator has reacted to every one of his efforts in the past and his last (the big fig) was earned on a funky wet fast track. Of course, the Lukas horses always seem to run well when they ship in the spring from CA to Kentucky so you have to factor that in with this one.
CA is slower than Sun King but it looks like SK may have reacted to his big effort off the bench. Zito is certainly on fire and high on the horse and maybe you can excuse his last but it is usually not a good idea (from a betting standpoint) to make excuses for the likely favorite in the race.
Anyway, a small field but an interesting race nonetheless and it sounds like it will be the ROTW this week and likely to get a lot more discussion on the board prior to post time.
Good luck to all.
Chris
P.S. Keep in mind that the Blue Grass is probably the most prestigious race in America after the TC, BC and Travers; so, even though these guys all would love to win the Derby and don't want to see their horses peak too soon, don't expect them to send their horses out at 80% for this race (despite what they may say before or after the race). If that was the plan, then they would have chosen a different path to the Derby.