Re: My Closing Argument on the BG (625 Views)
Date: April 13, 2005 11:22AM
HP,
"-- In your posts, I haven't seen you give ONE example of a horse that "for certain ran on an honest track." "
There were three 3YO preps that fall into my "suspect" category. The rest of the surfaces were honest.
LA Derby
Wood Memorial
San Felipe
" Seriously. I have not seen any "winning insights" whatsoever in any of your posts, and you post A LOT. "
All I can say is that I've won money in 7 of the last 9 years playing this way. I had more mixed results for several years before that when I used to bet a lot more short priced horses and saver exactas (that cost me money).
Most horseplayers love the action, so they play lots of races. I pick plenty of shorter priced winners but pass the races because my results indicate that all I'm doing is spinning money through the windows. I don't bet very often even when I identify the most likely winner. It takes a good horse horse at a good price (like Wildcat Heir that I played and spoke about here) to get me to the windows. I also don't cash a very high percentage because I'm not looking for locks. I'm looking for value and a lot of time that means playing horses with only a 15%-20% chance of winning that I know aren't the best horse in the race.