Re: My Closing Argument on the BG (539 Views)
Posted by:
HP (IP Logged)
Date: April 13, 2005 02:40PM
Joe,
"You must be very impressed with CH to ask all these questions."
Quite the opposite. I'm asking all the questions because it's becoming increasingly obvious to me that CH is full of it.
"If the guy is keying in on 8-1 shots or better, ever think he may be cashing some nice exactas?"
Joe, CH didn't say ANYTHING about keying in on 8-1 shots... Class said 7/2 was his "minimum." It's IMPOSSIBLE to "not cash a high percentage" of bets and win playing 7/2, 4-1 or even 5-1. And I mean IMPOSSIBLE!
Here's an illustration.
Bandini is 8-1. You play $10 win Bandini and $5 exactas with two of the shorter priced horses OVER Bandini.
Bet is $20.
High Limit wins at 5/2 and Bandini finishes second. The crowd is all over the high profile connections and the exacta pays $28 (which is a decent 14-1!). You get back $70 for a $50 profit. If Bandini wins you get back $80 for a $60 profit. It doesn't matter because...
You don't cash a "high percentage" of your bets. Assuming THIS is the one you cash, and then you lose your next seven $20 bets, and overall, your winning percentage for the day, week, or whatever is a "not high" 12%.
This is called going broke. And this is with an 8-1 shot winning!
The ONLY way it's mathematically possible to win cashing a "not high" pct. of your bets is to BANG LONGSHOTS to win or to get LONGSHOT COMBO exactas. 8-1 winners won't do it (you need to hit 12.5% of your bets to break even!), and 8-1 exactas with shorties won't do it either. If he starts talking about boxing Bandini with some other longshots then we're in business. As I said before, I'm turning blue holding my breath on this...
He writes -- "sometimes I actually like a horse a lot and think he deserves to be 2-1! So 7-2 is fine."
No, it isn't fine. You can't play 7/2, hit a "not high percentage" of your bets and turn a profit. And you can put in all the :) crap you want. As Anthony Newley sang, it's IMPOSSIBLE!
You don't have to be a deli man to know baloney.
HP