Re: My Closing Argument on the BG (420 Views)
Date: April 12, 2005 10:26PM
big18741,
All IMHO....
I can't be certain if there was a bias that day or not because I don't know the horses in CA at all, but as I said "it certainly didn't hurt to be on the pace that day" based on my review of those charts.
One of the closers that won closed off a 21.1 "42.3" pace late in the day. (Is that even right? The teletimer showed 41.3 which I assume is impossible. It must have been 43.3)
The other closer was a 1st time starter that also looks like he may have been helped by a 3 way duel. We have no PPs to work with when it comes to him, but maybe he's just a tank. The lead horse finished 2nd.
One thing I am almost certain of is that when there's a bias (especially when the track is wet), competent jocks usually catch on after the first couple of races and adjust their styles by becoming more aggressive. Maybe that's what happened in at least one of those races. Over-aggressiveness can negate any advantage to be gained by being in front (IMO sometimes it actually hurts).
I certainly wouldn't discount the possibility just because every race didn't go wire to wire. By definition, if there is a "bias" it is not a guarantee. It is simply a bias or advantage.
I know how fast Consolidator ran, but I will not take him as the favorite (or close) off that race. I let horses that win on the front on wet suspect tracks beat me when they are a short price. I don't mind being wrong (and I could very well be) in those cases. Give me a price and I'll reconsider. Good luck. :-)
Post Edited (04-12-05 22:28)