HP,

As for 5-2 being a good bet, let me explain why.

I don't like Consolidator. I thought the three year olds in California were not much and to me, the SA Derby proved that. I would give 5-1 on a horse in the SA Derby making the Superfecta (not sure how many are running).

I think Bandini is a little slow on the numbers compared to High Fly and I don't like the training setback and new schedule. I thought the Fountain of Youth was a pretty unimpressive race. High Fly ran much better in the Florida Derby.

That leaves Sun King. I have to admit I am slightly biased against Sun King, having bet him mildly in the Champagne and then going "all in" on him in the BC where I just needed him to run 2nd to cash pretty well. I am not convinced he wants 1 1/8 or longer, as he flattened out in the BC and also ran better in the 1 turn GS race, than the Tampa Bay Derby. I know he wasn't asked to run much in the Tampa race, but still, the figure was a little slow for me.

High Limit ran a "1" as a two year old and then pairing it up in his first race this year, while on his wrong lead and appearing to run green in the stretch.

I think he will run faster on Saturday, although not as fast as Chris thinks he will run. Based on the probables, he figures on the lead and in the 1 path. Consolidator will probably be off his flank, in the 2 path and Sun King will have to negotiate a path from behind. Plus, the race is run at Keenland, where being on the lead is usually a good thing.

Even if he just improves 1 point, I think a "0" will likely be enough to win the race, the way it sets up.

If I think he is 40-50% to win the race, then 5-2 becomes a prime bet for me. If he goes off 2-1, I might bet less, but I will still hammer him.