Re: Going Wild with a Derby Rabbit? (458 Views)
Posted by:
TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: April 12, 2005 01:53PM
Jimbo-- coupla points on High Limit. First of all, the guy who had him before (A. Dutrow) is an extreme move-up artist, so the "first time Frankel" situation is a little different. Second, when we have talked about Frankel layoff patterns and what the horse does later we are generally talking about older horses. It may or may not be a little different for 3yos, but you can find sheets for Empire Maker, Peace Rules and Midas Eyes in the archives.
This is a real interesting horse, and a real interesting Blue Grass. I don't remember any horse that was both blindingly fast at two AND handled this way at three, not starting until mid March, races spaced, two starts before the Derby-- it's what I would have done.
I mentioned that I had played the field in pool 2 ($500) at 6-1. This time I bet High Limit (300 @13-1) and Rockport (200 @19-1), because it looks to me like someone will have to go negative to win this, and they're about the only other two I can see running new tops that fast. This gives me the ones I consider the 4 most likely winners (right now, anyway), and a few others tossed in (like the Ill. Derby winner) locking in 5/2 to 3-1.
And as you might notice, all 4 will have 2 starts or less going into the Derby.
TGJB