Re: Going Wild with a Derby Rabbit? (502 Views)
Date: April 12, 2005 11:43AM
I have to mildly disagree with the idea that good layoff trainers like Frankel bring their horses back 100%. They may be darn close to 100%. They may even run figures that approximate their top figure when they come back against soft fields that are being used to prep them for a main event. However, I don't think they are actually 100% very often based on studies I have done on how horses perform off layoffs when they are thrown to the lions in Grade I races.
In the case of High Limit, even if Frankel had the horse pretty cranked up, I would still expect this horse to move forward a bit because he's so darn lightly raced and a 3YO.
My main issue with him is that this is probably going to be the first time in his career there's going to be another horse of enough quality in the race capable of running with him or pressuring him a little early. Then someone else is likely to take a shot at him late.
This is the type of race that seperates the really good ones from the pretenders. It's his chance to shine.
Post Edited (04-12-05 11:46)