Re: My Closing Argument on the BG (422 Views)
Date: April 13, 2005 10:01AM
HP,
"Couldn't you say this about almost any track on any day of the week? "
This is my view.
On most days, most tracks give an advantage to speed horses because they can save ground and avoid other traffic issues.
On some days, I think that advantage extends past "typical/average".
>How can you handicap this way? Maybe there was a bias. Maybe there wasn't. My head's going to explode.<
LOL.
I'm in a different position than some people. I don't have to provide a solid "figure" that represents performance.
I don't have to make a "top selection" in a newspaper or forum that others can evaluate.
All I have to do is figure out what price I'm willing to take on various horses in order to try to net out to long term profits. One of the techniques I use requires that I admit to myself that I can't understand everything about every performance and reduce it to a certainty (or close). I form opinions, but realize I could be wrong.
What I try to do is avoid all the "possible negatives" and get all the "possible positive" on my side.
For example:
Given 2 horses have been running similar figures, I'd rather have the one that I know for certain ran on an honest track vs. the one that "may have been helped by a biased surface based on limited evidence".
If I can get that honest racetrack horse at a better price, that's a bet. If the horse that "may have run on a biased surface" is a slightly longer price I pass. No one is holding a gun to my head forcing me to bet when I'm not sure.
There's a lot of uncertainty in things like biases, controversial figures, horses unproven at a distance, the impact of pace on time, how a race might develop, etc...
All I try to do is get the highest possible price on horses with few or no "possible" negatives and as many "possible positive" as possible.
It's more or less my way of dealing with my admission of ignorance in some situations instead of forming strong opinions that turn out to be wrong and lose me money.