Re: My Closing Argument on the BG (460 Views)
Posted by:
HP (IP Logged)
Date: April 13, 2005 11:56AM
1. "All I try to do is get the highest possible price on horses with few or no "possible" negatives and as many "possible positive" as possible."
2. "I'm looking for value and a lot of time that means playing horses with only a 15%-20% chance of winning that I know aren't the best horse in the race."
These two statements taken together make absolutely no sense. How could horses with "few or no negatives and a lot of possible positives" have only a 15-20% chance of winning? I mean it makes NO SENSE, Class.
This is just one example. Here's another.
"I don't bet very often even when I identify the most likely winner. It takes a good horse horse at a good price (like Wildcat Heir that I played and spoke about here) to get me to the windows. I also don't cash a very high percentage because I'm not looking for locks."
If you don't bet very often and you don't cash a very high percentage you must hit BOMBS every time you hit to turn an annual profit. What's your average mutuel payoff? Do you play exotics? I would guess you don't play too many exotics because picking ONE horse to play must be very hard for you, let alone two or three.
I'd love to hear how you do this. Judging by this last paragraph, you must hit 10-1 to 20-1 shots pretty steady. If you can do this, why don't you share your methods, specifically, instead of posting these inane generalities?
This reminds me of another guy who used to post here all the time and he was another wizard who would explain that he "didn't want to hurt his price" and "he didn't have to give picks." So he had A LOT of ideas that had nothing to do with TG and he never demonstrated whether or not they worked. He never laid out a race or said what he thought would happen before the fact either. You were just supposed to take it on faith that he was a winner. I don't buy it. Show me! If I can do it, so can you. If you can't, I think that says everything anyone needs to know about your abilities.
I think Davidrex is right.
HP