Re: My Closing Argument on the BG (474 Views)
Posted by:
HP (IP Logged)
Date: April 13, 2005 01:16PM
Class,
So you might bet on Bandini if the price is right. Maybe before the race you can write a definitive sentence like...
"I will play Bandini to win at 10-1 or more."
or
"I will play Bandini to win and use him under High Limit and Sun King."
Using your logic, if I liked Bandini I would probably have to get AT LEAST 15-1, because the only way he can win is if NONE of the faster horses fire (and there are AT LEAST three of them -- probably more) and I would say the odds that Frankel, Zito, etc. will come up completely empty here are pretty long.
Hopefully you can consolidate (no pun intended) this into one coherent sentence before the race. It really isn't that hard.
You should have some clue of what price you will take... I know it's got to be A LOT better than 7/2! Because...
At 3-1, if you make equal win bets and hit three out of ten races you break about even. That's winning at better than a 30% clip.
If you "don't cash a high percentage" of your bets (your words) your average mutuels have to be MUCH higher than 7/2. I don't see how you could even LOOK at a 7/2 shot and make money.
My math isn't that great, but if you hit say, 10% of your races, your average mutuel has to be 10-1 to BREAK EVEN. So given EVERYTHING you have written here, if you turn this annual profit playing the way you say you play, I don't see how you could be looking at ANYTHING under 10-1 (remember, you hit a pretty small percentage and turn a profit, right?). If you make out playing 4-1 or 5-1 shots, your winning pct. must actually be pretty high...contrary to what you say.
HP